0x8cA2DdbF48871a7f86b49202EE73fab4cc7B1266-1761664579385
0x554db06a1ee86fd9d0e184a11468d40a49eec64b
- Realised P&L
- $77.96
- Volume
- $4.6k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $171.85
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration57.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$139.43at 0.126Will Benfica finish first in UEL league phase?
- +$28.48at 0.288Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference?
- +$23.50at 0.029Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- +$15.30at 0.490Will Warsh say "Pressure" during September Press Conference?
- +$10.92at 0.837Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.29% in October?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 13:03 | Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | BUY | 0.119 | $3.57 |
| 10-29 12:23 | Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.3 | $6.00 |
| 10-08 19:45 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.42 | $4.20 |
| 10-08 19:45 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.42 | $20.58 |
| 10-06 12:11 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.153 | $15.30 |
| 10-06 12:05 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.498 | $24.90 |
| 10-06 12:02 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.497 | $4.97 |
| 10-06 12:02 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.497 | $4.97 |
| 10-06 12:01 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.497 | $4.97 |
| 10-06 12:01 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.497 | $4.97 |
| 10-06 12:01 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.498 | $24.90 |
| 10-06 11:59 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.18 | $3.60 |
| 10-06 11:57 | Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | BUY | 0.179 | $5.37 |
| 10-05 14:40 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.36 | $5.40 |
| 10-04 20:21 | Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04? | SELL | 0.36 | $10.80 |