trotzstirn
0x55278fc5da1bfcefba2b08ce477079b3c9394e68
- Realised P&L
- $-938.24
- Volume
- $27.4k
- Markets traded
- 214
- Open portfolio
- $247.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded214
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$97.58at 0.322Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
- +$93.68at 0.311Will "Wicked: For Good" be nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the 32nd Actor Awards?
- +$84.29at 0.232Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$67.96at 0.243Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?
- +$61.88at 0.419Will "One Battle After Another" win Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the 32nd Actor Awards?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-08 03:52 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.34 | $1.70 |
| 01-05 18:54 | Will ACA premium tax credits be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $69.79 |
| 01-05 16:40 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $582.10 |
| 01-05 16:38 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2534545871 | $663.73 |
| 01-05 15:13 | Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31? | BUY | 0.76 | $25.84 |
| 01-05 10:41 | Will FC Heidenheim be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season? | BUY | 0.4 | $6.76 |
| 01-04 21:45 | Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $4.93 |
| 01-04 21:43 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $3.40 |
| 01-04 21:41 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $3.40 |
| 01-04 21:24 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $4.25 |
| 01-04 21:22 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $4.25 |
| 01-04 21:21 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.21 | $3.57 |
| 01-04 21:20 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $4.25 |
| 01-04 21:20 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $2.98 |
| 01-04 18:00 | Will Wesley Hunt come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | BUY | 0.81646 | $40.82 |