0x54f7511f2ca2989a5c856e931ee13086e254eca4
0x54f7511f2ca2989a5c856e931ee13086e254eca4
- Realised P&L
- $-2.80
- Volume
- $86.57
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $5.79
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)53.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.815 | $3.02 | +$2.02 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $198 Week of September 28 2026? · No | 0.610 | 1.000 | $1.64 | +$0.64 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.365 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.052 | $0.20 | −$0.80 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 2? · Down | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.84at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$2.99at 0.310Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$1.30at 0.440Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September?
- +$1.10at 0.482Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?
- +$0.81at 0.620Meta (META) Up or Down on September 17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 12:06 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 03:09 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 2? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 13:37 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 05:32 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 09:31 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 00:16 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 15:29 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 07:01 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $198 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 22:45 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 14:44 | Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 05:45 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 21:28 | Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 12:36 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 04:36 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 08:08 | Will Trump say "Board of Trade" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.7699999052 | $1.30 |