pup1
0x54b56146656e7eef9da02b3a030c18e06e924b31
- Realised P&L
- $302.4k
- Volume
- $54.24M
- Markets traded
- 4,623
- Open portfolio
- $49.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded4,623
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- BlockerProfit concentration66.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$160.6kat 0.156Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$76.4kat 0.590Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$53.9kat 0.761Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$40.2kat 0.405Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$30.6kat 0.247Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 22:19 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.8 | $8.0k |
| 08-02 22:15 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.57 | $214.40 |
| 08-02 22:07 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.012 | $136.70 |
| 08-02 22:07 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.011 | $125.31 |
| 08-02 22:07 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.009 | $102.53 |
| 08-02 22:00 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.5971619808 | $3.2k |
| 08-02 21:58 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.59 | $3.0k |
| 08-02 21:58 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.58 | $250.73 |
| 08-02 21:51 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY | 0.27 | $49.41 |
| 08-02 21:51 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.59 | $3.0k |
| 08-02 21:44 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.56 | $1.9k |
| 08-02 21:43 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $8.0k |
| 08-02 21:05 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | BUY | 0.44 | $88.04 |
| 08-02 20:02 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.67 | $1.3k |
| 08-02 20:02 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | SELL | 0.77 | $309.78 |