PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

doofusthefirst

0x5486b8ae72bee876d9aa20e8a9178ec975c5970c

Realised P&L
$-18.27
Volume
$1.8k
Markets traded
68
Open portfolio
$77.92

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded68
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration15.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration24.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.6920.835$19.31+$3.31
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? · No0.8300.925$16.72+$1.72
Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026? · No0.7530.845$7.92+$0.86
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? · No0.6800.815$5.99+$0.99
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes0.5300.595$5.61+$0.61
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? · No0.8500.915$5.39+$0.39
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? · Yes0.5800.850$4.40+$1.40
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · No0.8200.925$3.38+$0.38
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? · No0.7900.865$2.35+$0.20
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 · No0.4040.185$2.29$2.71
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? · No0.8100.910$2.25+$0.25
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1660.080$1.44$1.56
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.2730.160$0.88$0.62
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET · Down0.0600.000$0.00$1.00
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? · No0.4400.000$0.00$3.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-09 20:55Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ETBUY0.8$3.00
09-09 06:55Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ETBUY0.6599998944$2.00
09-09 06:54Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ETSELL0.99$2.25
09-09 06:54Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ETBUY0.889999911$1.00
09-09 06:54Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ETBUY0.8699999913$1.00
09-09 06:54Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ETSELL0.97$1.43
09-09 06:53Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ETSELL0.15$0.81
09-09 06:52Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ETBUY0.6799998912$1.00
09-09 06:52Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ETSELL0.44$0.79
09-09 06:50Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ETBUY0.6799998776$2.00
09-09 06:50Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ETBUY0.6999999767$3.00
09-09 06:49Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ETSELL0.99$4.63
09-09 06:45Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ETBUY0.64$3.00
09-09 06:44Solana Up or Down - September 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ETSELL0.94$3.39
09-09 06:43Solana Up or Down - September 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ETBUY0.8299999613$3.00