mangostein
0x544f0fde00918bf423fd58c1d1c12b59cb4f4cb9
- Realised P&L
- $-111.24
- Volume
- $5.3k
- Markets traded
- 76
- Open portfolio
- $193.55
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded76
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$48.80at 0.120Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?
- +$45.39at 0.210Will Drake release a new album by December 31?
- +$20.80at 0.150US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?
- +$16.70at 0.261Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?
- +$16.50at 0.170Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 08:14 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026? | SELL | 0.51 | $16.83 |
| 10-04 07:20 | Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)? | BUY | 0.824 | $16.48 |
| 10-04 06:55 | Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.849999989 | $34.80 |
| 10-04 06:37 | Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31? | BUY | 0.8887718729 | $42.77 |
| 10-04 06:20 | Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? | BUY | 0.8139999727 | $16.54 |
| 10-04 06:16 | Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $41.50 |
| 10-04 06:15 | Will Drake release a new album by December 31? | SELL | 0.13 | $6.50 |
| 10-04 05:08 | Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.53 | $10.60 |
| 10-04 04:42 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $12.90 |
| 10-04 04:42 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $30.10 |
| 10-04 03:58 | Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? | BUY | 0.35 | $7.00 |
| 10-04 03:48 | Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? | BUY | 0.34 | $6.80 |
| 10-04 03:48 | Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? | BUY | 0.34 | $3.40 |
| 10-04 03:41 | Will Donald Trump publicly praise Mark Rutte by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.34 | $4.76 |
| 10-04 03:39 | Will Donald Trump publicly praise Mark Rutte by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.32 | $1.92 |