PolyBot

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Traders

mangostein

0x544f0fde00918bf423fd58c1d1c12b59cb4f4cb9

Realised P&L
$-111.24
Volume
$5.3k
Markets traded
76
Open portfolio
$193.55

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded76
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration21.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration19.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · No0.8200.740$37.00−$4.00
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? · No0.4100.345$17.25−$3.25
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? · Yes0.3400.340$17.00+$0.00
Will no next Israeli Minister of Interior be appointed by February 28, 2027? · Yes0.3800.335$16.75−$2.25
Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the December meeting? · No0.6400.625$12.50−$0.30
Will Nico Collins have 1,000+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? · Yes0.6600.583$11.65−$1.55
Will the Bank of Korea hold at the November 2026 meeting? · No0.5800.460$9.20−$2.40
Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.1400.225$9.00+$3.40
Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027? · Yes0.3500.335$6.70−$0.30
Will Kathy Hochul win Nassau County in the New York governor race in 2026? · Yes0.3900.325$6.50−$1.30
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-12 House election by 35%-40%? · Yes0.3000.275$5.50−$0.50
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31? · Yes0.5600.595$5.41+$0.32
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.2800.265$5.30−$0.30
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Elon Musk by October 31, 2026? · No0.2800.225$4.50−$1.10
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? · No0.7700.765$3.32−$0.02

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-04 08:14Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?SELL0.51$16.83
10-04 07:20Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)?BUY0.824$16.48
10-04 06:55Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?BUY0.849999989$34.80
10-04 06:37Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?BUY0.8887718729$42.77
10-04 06:20Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?BUY0.8139999727$16.54
10-04 06:16Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?BUY0.83$41.50
10-04 06:15Will Drake release a new album by December 31?SELL0.13$6.50
10-04 05:08Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?SELL0.53$10.60
10-04 04:42Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?BUY0.86$12.90
10-04 04:42Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?BUY0.86$30.10
10-04 03:58Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?BUY0.35$7.00
10-04 03:48Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?BUY0.34$6.80
10-04 03:48Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?BUY0.34$3.40
10-04 03:41Will Donald Trump publicly praise Mark Rutte by October 31, 2026?SELL0.34$4.76
10-04 03:39Will Donald Trump publicly praise Mark Rutte by October 31, 2026?SELL0.32$1.92