dontask2026
0x53ef61e2c8a7b613f5ae1c91e83fe29ea114a70a
- Realised P&L
- $-17.85
- Volume
- $4.2k
- Markets traded
- 144
- Open portfolio
- $108.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded144
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.33at 0.300US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?
- +$9.71at 0.340US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?
- +$9.63at 0.769Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
- +$6.45at 0.237Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
- +$3.69at 0.211Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 20:34 | Will Ethereum reach $3,100 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.04 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 20:33 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.992 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 20:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET | BUY | 0.2199999974 | $5.00 |
| 10-06 20:29 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.9169999982 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 20:28 | Netanyahu drops out before election? | BUY | 0.9859999834 | $10.00 |
| 10-06 20:27 | Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 10-06 20:26 | Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.9959998653 | $5.00 |
| 06-08 15:01 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5928853748 | $10.00 |
| 06-07 19:48 | Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1499998875 | $1.00 |
| 06-07 19:46 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1679998871 | $1.00 |
| 05-18 20:53 | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? | BUY | 0.0289999724 | $1.00 |
| 04-18 19:25 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.6369998267 | $1.00 |
| 04-16 23:17 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.6279999879 | $5.00 |
| 04-13 09:40 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.8299992198 | $1.00 |
| 04-11 18:38 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.00 |