0x53d51bfa997b02e146d3e5ceb7802bd42ff9fb93
0x53d51bfa997b02e146d3e5ceb7802bd42ff9fb93
- Realised P&L
- $-7.00
- Volume
- $195.67
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $1.74
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.730 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.377 | $0.52 | −$0.48 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.055 | $0.21 | −$1.74 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.82at 0.422Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$2.70at 0.432Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
- +$2.30at 0.470Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio <88%?
- +$1.93at 0.361Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$1.92at 0.482Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 23:48 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 15:57 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 07:55 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 09:33 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 01:07 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September? | BUY | 0.5899997404 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 12:07 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.709999947 | $1.74 |
| 08-21 20:48 | Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August? | BUY | 0.5499999725 | $2.00 |
| 08-19 06:58 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 08-13 17:20 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.76 | $2.00 |
| 08-13 09:19 | Will Trump say "Hottest" during remarks in New York? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |
| 08-13 01:16 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 13? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 08-12 05:15 | Will Trump say "Crazy" during remarks in New York? | BUY | 0.299999925 | $2.00 |
| 08-11 21:13 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.34999993 | $2.00 |
| 08-11 13:04 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.4699999406 | $1.74 |
| 08-11 05:03 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |