chirenbuyu
0x53a7ae59c9c213757d4f78f954604c95268c089a
- Realised P&L
- $-24.23
- Volume
- $1.0k
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $27.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Mexico this month? · No | 0.831 | 0.690 | $8.53 | −$1.74 |
| Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Peru this month? · No | 0.850 | 0.770 | $7.70 | −$0.80 |
| Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Chile this month? · No | 0.730 | 0.645 | $6.45 | −$0.85 |
| Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Indonesia this month? · No | 0.500 | 0.450 | $5.31 | −$0.59 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.51at 0.675Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on September 19?
- +$2.37at 0.708Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on September 19?
- +$1.77at 0.396Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on September 20?
- +$1.45at 0.920Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on September 19?
- +$0.78at 0.866Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on September 21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 11:37 | Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Chile this month? | BUY | 0.73 | $3.65 |
| 10-07 17:02 | Will Des Moines, IA face tornado risk on October 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.91 |
| 10-07 14:46 | Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Mexico this month? | BUY | 0.8399998695 | $3.09 |
| 10-07 14:17 | Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Mexico this month? | BUY | 0.8499999864 | $3.13 |
| 10-07 14:15 | Will Fort Worth, TX face tornado risk on October 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.98 |
| 10-07 14:14 | Will Dallas, TX face tornado risk on October 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.98 |
| 10-07 14:12 | Will Austin, TX face tornado risk on October 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.98 |
| 10-07 14:07 | Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Indonesia this month? | BUY | 0.5199999406 | $1.75 |
| 10-07 13:56 | Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Indonesia this month? | BUY | 0.509999933 | $1.75 |
| 09-21 23:47 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.27 |
| 09-20 18:39 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.8599999107 | $5.01 |
| 09-20 18:27 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on September 21? | SELL | 0.44 | $7.34 |
| 09-20 18:27 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on September 21? | SELL | 0.37 | $10.89 |
| 09-20 15:26 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | BUY | 0.0559999998 | $5.01 |
| 09-20 05:21 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.7799999907 | $5.01 |