0x52c457Bc2900C1360B6855BD965C617eB56826aC-1768429747411
0x52c457bc2900c1360b6855bd965c617eb56826ac
- Realised P&L
- $10.18
- Volume
- $484.60
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $28.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration43.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.52at 0.540Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$8.52at 0.540Will António José Seguro win more than 22% of votes in the first round?
- +$1.49at 0.770S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 20?
- +$0.80at 0.560Meta (META) Up or Down on September 9?
- +$0.13at 0.185Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 18:30 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1628742484 | $2.00 |
| 09-09 18:18 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 18:17 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5760861124 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 18:15 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4799999846 | $5.00 |
| 09-08 22:21 | Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? | BUY | 0.0479999985 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 21:51 | Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $3.00 |
| 09-08 21:43 | Meta (META) Up or Down on September 9? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 21:33 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999905 | $10.00 |
| 09-08 21:30 | Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? | BUY | 0.0439975428 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 21:25 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1809523741 | $3.00 |
| 01-19 21:55 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 20? | BUY | 0.7699999877 | $5.00 |
| 01-19 21:54 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.5 | $6.86 |
| 01-19 21:54 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.48 | $9.79 |
| 01-19 19:52 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999716 | $7.00 |
| 01-19 18:52 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.4899999814 | $10.00 |