0x52968f8783027bEaE11728C1FBaC057dE1cd6D7B-1763969850506
0x52968f8783027beae11728c1fbac057de1cd6d7b
- Realised P&L
- $-155.93
- Volume
- $42.0k
- Markets traded
- 439
- Open portfolio
- $65.22
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded439
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.16at 0.100MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$34.53at 0.080Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
- +$13.94at 0.030MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
- +$11.23at 0.300Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?
- +$9.41at 0.132Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 08:09 | Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.048 | $1.22 |
| 08-19 07:58 | Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $2.29 |
| 08-19 05:49 | Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.014 | $0.29 |
| 08-18 12:28 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | SELL | 0.021 | $0.54 |
| 08-15 15:03 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.33 |
| 08-11 20:23 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | SELL | 0.11 | $1.94 |
| 08-09 19:28 | New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | SELL | 0.04 | $1.74 |
| 08-08 19:48 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.146 | $2.39 |
| 08-07 22:33 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | SELL | 0.024 | $1.75 |
| 08-05 22:13 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.05 | $1.55 |
| 08-04 17:13 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.13 | $2.11 |
| 08-04 12:13 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.06 | $1.88 |
| 08-03 19:38 | Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $1.06 |
| 08-02 10:23 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.14 | $2.23 |
| 07-29 00:23 | Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $1.85 |