PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

OctoGeo

0x5222b6bbda3f9af311bd183afd5791a7ca2e7437

Realised P&L
$-28.68
Volume
$6.5k
Markets traded
519
Open portfolio
$41.45

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded519
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration14.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration25.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0830.177$10.69+$5.69
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? · Yes0.3320.715$4.30+$2.30
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.2700.915$3.39+$2.39
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0480.132$2.74+$1.74
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.3930.485$1.23+$0.23
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes0.0210.025$1.21+$0.21
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No0.5000.605$1.21+$0.21
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes0.0500.055$1.10+$0.10
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes0.0900.095$1.06+$0.06
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027? · No0.4600.475$1.03+$0.03
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes0.2910.298$1.03+$0.03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027? · No0.3300.325$0.98−$0.02
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.3100.305$0.98−$0.02
Will England win the UEFA EURO 2028? · Yes0.1600.155$0.97−$0.03
Will Germany win the UEFA EURO 2028? · Yes0.1000.095$0.95−$0.05

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-24 05:26Will Spain win on 2026-09-27?BUY0.92$1.00
09-16 11:12Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ETBUY0.1899999962$1.00
09-16 07:12Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ETBUY0.0299999994$1.00
09-08 20:11Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ETBUY0.08$1.00
09-08 20:10Will France vs. Ecuador end in a draw?BUY0.2099999895$1.00
09-08 20:10Will USA win on 2026-09-09?BUY0.2799999664$1.00
09-08 20:10Will Italy vs. New Zealand end in a draw?BUY0.1328273144$1.00
09-08 20:07Will Millwall FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?BUY0.3499999825$1.00
09-08 20:06Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?BUY0.3299998944$1.00
09-08 20:06Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027?BUY0.4599997976$1.00
09-08 20:05Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?BUY0.5799999768$1.00
09-08 20:03Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ETBUY0.0299999994$1.00
09-07 16:07Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ETBUY0.74$1.00
09-07 15:08Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ETBUY0.98$1.00
09-04 14:27Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ETBUY0.29999982$1.00