PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

kdonky48

0x519878208671309d482aded7ce877a72a28d2616

Realised P&L
$-410.33
Volume
$32.7k
Markets traded
162
Open portfolio
$299.49

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded162
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration33.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration24.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes0.1600.080$72.00$72.00
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No0.9620.981$36.28+$0.68
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No0.9240.946$34.04+$0.77
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? · No0.9971.000$32.00+$0.10
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.9821.000$27.58+$0.50
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? · No0.9861.000$22.00+$0.31
Hyperliquid listed on Binance in 2026? · No0.4000.865$17.30+$9.30
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? · No0.6900.865$17.30+$3.50
Modi out by December 31, 2026? · No0.9390.926$14.82$0.21
Fed rate hike in 2026? · No0.6600.325$8.06$8.31
StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch? · Yes0.2300.265$7.95+$1.05
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? · Yes0.0800.038$4.62$4.98
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? · Yes0.1800.065$2.99$5.29
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? · No0.7100.165$1.65$5.45
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.0060.004$0.87$0.63

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-04 23:28Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026?BUY0.997$31.90
06-04 23:27Modi out by December 31, 2026?BUY0.939$15.02
06-04 23:26Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY0.17$5.18
06-04 23:23Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?SELL0.51$10.20
06-04 23:23Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?SELL0.918$27.54
05-22 02:48Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?SELL0.52$20.79
05-22 02:44Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?BUY0.986$21.69
05-22 02:42Fed rate hike in 2026?BUY0.66$16.37
05-22 02:42Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?BUY0.18$8.28
05-22 02:41Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026?BUY0.982$27.08
04-01 19:13Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?BUY0.962$35.59
04-01 19:13Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?BUY0.26$8.17
04-01 19:12Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionBUY0.0634997755$5.66
04-01 19:12Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?BUY0.983$49.15
04-01 19:11Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?SELL0.84$19.32