kdonky48
0x519878208671309d482aded7ce877a72a28d2616
- Realised P&L
- $-410.33
- Volume
- $32.7k
- Markets traded
- 162
- Open portfolio
- $299.49
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded162
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.27at 0.590Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in March?
- +$19.76at 0.327Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$15.60at 0.760Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025?
- +$13.44at 0.190Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?
- +$12.10at 0.450Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-04 23:28 | Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $31.90 |
| 06-04 23:27 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.939 | $15.02 |
| 06-04 23:26 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.17 | $5.18 |
| 06-04 23:23 | Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.51 | $10.20 |
| 06-04 23:23 | Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | SELL | 0.918 | $27.54 |
| 05-22 02:48 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.52 | $20.79 |
| 05-22 02:44 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | BUY | 0.986 | $21.69 |
| 05-22 02:42 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $16.37 |
| 05-22 02:42 | Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $8.28 |
| 05-22 02:41 | Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.982 | $27.08 |
| 04-01 19:13 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.962 | $35.59 |
| 04-01 19:13 | Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.26 | $8.17 |
| 04-01 19:12 | Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | BUY | 0.0634997755 | $5.66 |
| 04-01 19:12 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.983 | $49.15 |
| 04-01 19:11 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL | 0.84 | $19.32 |