mathrex
0x50b0de750ec7f757250d483ebb86e1e9e61e1640
- Realised P&L
- $-16.0k
- Volume
- $151.7k
- Markets traded
- 44
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-10.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded44
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample37 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.711 | 0.767 | $1.2k | +$92.01 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.299 | 0.330 | $193.00 | +$18.01 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? · No | 0.693 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1000.00 |
| Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.0k |
| Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? · No | 0.933 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.3k |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.0k |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.157 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.7k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$353.10at 0.860US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
- +$227.66at 0.887Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
- +$154.55at 0.240US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
- +$152.38at 0.755Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
- +$133.33at 0.840Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 20:32 | Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999842 | $10.00 |
| 08-03 11:07 | Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2966009923 | $164.99 |
| 08-03 11:07 | Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7787045989 | $600.00 |
| 08-02 20:28 | Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7047011353 | $500.00 |
| 07-25 09:12 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.7500557831 | $2.7k |
| 07-25 09:10 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | SELL | 0.8506580343 | $2.3k |
| 07-22 19:17 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.9659283038 | $1.2k |
| 07-22 19:16 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.83 | $3.0k |
| 07-21 21:24 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.93 | $1000.00 |
| 07-21 17:27 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.9299999999 | $340.00 |
| 07-21 07:22 | Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8657859559 | $40.00 |
| 07-21 07:22 | Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.831865335 | $50.00 |
| 07-20 09:34 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.8399999993 | $50.00 |
| 07-19 20:20 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.6 | $3.00 |
| 07-19 16:58 | Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina? | BUY | 0.971 | $530.00 |