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Traders

0x504130bf245a7d4ff2decf7f8997563f8a60619a

0x504130bf245a7d4ff2decf7f8997563f8a60619a

Realised P&L
$265.05
Volume
$17.1k
Markets traded
213
Open portfolio
$195.92

Can you copy this trader?

plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded213
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration21.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration20.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? · Yes0.6700.645$39.57−$1.53
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? · No0.6900.971$31.87+$9.21
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? · Yes0.5400.835$14.80+$5.23
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? · No0.8700.967$12.28+$1.23
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? · Yes0.2280.145$11.77−$6.77
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8730.825$11.22−$0.65
Will New Democracy (ND) win the most seats in the next Greek parliamentary elections? · Yes0.8800.935$10.78+$0.63
US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes0.4400.085$7.17−$29.92
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1030.100$5.25−$0.18
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison? · No0.9450.920$5.02−$0.14
Will the Democrats win the Alabama governor race in 2026? · No0.9500.956$4.50+$0.03
Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026? · No0.9300.993$4.48+$0.28
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1780.183$4.32+$0.13
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? · No0.9300.971$3.98+$0.17
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? · No0.8900.915$3.67+$0.10

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-29 22:08LoL: Karmine Corp vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 WinnerSELL0.69$4.53
10-29 22:08LoL: Karmine Corp vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 WinnerSELL0.69$25.44
10-29 21:29LoL: Karmine Corp vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 WinnerBUY0.45$11.16
10-29 21:29LoL: Karmine Corp vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 WinnerBUY0.4399999022$1.44
10-29 21:15LoL: Karmine Corp vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 WinnerBUY0.34$9.52
10-29 19:13Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?SELL0.971$7.72
10-29 17:52Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?SELL0.971$16.79
10-29 17:46Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?SELL0.996$64.00
10-29 17:46Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?SELL0.996$59.67
10-09 20:46Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?BUY0.9839999999$122.19
10-09 18:44Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?BUY0.6699999811$13.84
10-09 18:44Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?BUY0.669999992$18.51
10-09 18:44Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?BUY0.6699999566$1.39
10-09 18:43Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?BUY0.6699999772$7.36
10-06 19:05US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?SELL0.23$2.60
Trader 0x504130bf245a7d4ff2decf7f8997563f8a60619a · PolyBot Pro