PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

turtle123

0x4fff3c11a5d9b77822e01792f933cdb28557be78

Realised P&L
$23.4k
Volume
$3.56M
Markets traded
1,242
Open portfolio
$20.2k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,242
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
BlockerProfit concentration54.5% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration51.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.5000.792$10.3k+$3.8k
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.5000.207$2.7k$3.8k
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? · Yes0.6691.000$2.7k+$877.05
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes0.5700.575$1.7k+$15.00
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? · Yes0.7200.630$888.97$127.00
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? · No0.3700.370$370.00+$0.00
Anthropic IPO before 2027? · Yes0.7270.675$210.36$16.33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? · No0.7301.000$199.90+$53.90
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.7800.887$177.50+$21.50
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? · Yes0.1800.135$115.80$38.60
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? · No0.8670.865$93.26$0.19
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? · Yes0.9200.880$88.00$4.00
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 5, 2026? · Yes0.8700.860$86.00$1.00
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.7050.805$80.51+$10.00
Iran leadership change by December 31? · No0.7500.795$79.50+$4.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 13:39Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on August 3?BUY0.92$49.06
08-02 11:49Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 5, 2026?BUY0.87$52.20
08-02 03:37Israel closes its airspace by August 15?SELL0.93$93.00
08-01 18:58Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?BUY0.6809843716$434.86
08-01 18:35Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?BUY0.68$459.69
08-01 15:38Will Marco Rubio say "Trump" 3+ times during Fox News: My View appearance?BUY0.78$15.60
08-01 15:01U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?SELL0.001$0.10
08-01 14:28Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 31, 2026?BUY0.83$33.28
07-30 05:34Will Trump say "Filibuster" during cabinet meeting?BUY0.3$24.00
07-30 05:29Will Trump’s remarks not air?BUY0.968$14.67
07-29 18:53Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during July Press Conference?SELL0.79309$15.86
07-29 18:36Will Warsh say "President" during July Press Conference?BUY0.27$2.70
07-29 18:28Will Trump say "Say Something" during Announcement with the Secretary of Transportation?BUY0.42$4.40
07-29 18:27Will Trump say "Rebuild" during Announcement with the Secretary of Transportation?BUY0.77$19.25
07-29 18:26Will Trump say "Rebuild" during Announcement with the Secretary of Transportation?BUY0.74$25.90