Sponsinator
0x4fd5f19300fa9d89685e599364ae20828e09c313
- Realised P&L
- $259.96
- Volume
- $149.9k
- Markets traded
- 55
- Open portfolio
- $2.0k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded55
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration70.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? · No | 0.977 | 0.972 | $777.20 | −$4.40 |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? · No | 0.969 | 0.965 | $771.60 | −$3.60 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on October 13? · No | 0.340 | 1.000 | $199.89 | +$131.89 |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on October 12? · Yes | 0.947 | 1.000 | $139.98 | +$7.40 |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on October 12? · No | 0.955 | 1.000 | $120.00 | +$5.40 |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 44% by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.830 | 0.905 | $18.10 | +$1.50 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on October 13? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.001 | $0.10 | −$117.90 |
| NYC congestion pricing repealed before July? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.40 |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$172.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$945.26at 0.538Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German election?
- +$232.14at 0.569Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
- +$86.05at 0.478Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LIX be green/yellow?
- +$61.74at 0.020Will Joe Milton be traded to the Dallas Cowboys?
- +$32.50at 0.350Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-08 14:18 | Will Han Duck-soo endorse PPP? | BUY | 0.24 | $2.40 |
| 05-08 14:05 | Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | BUY | 0.89 | $97.90 |
| 04-30 23:04 | India military strike on Pakistan today? | BUY | 0.969 | $97.87 |
| 04-30 22:51 | Will anyone audibly fart during Robinhood earnings call? | BUY | 0.99 | $99.00 |
| 04-30 22:51 | Will anyone audibly fart during Robinhood earnings call? | BUY | 0.986886918 | $445.09 |
| 04-30 22:45 | India military strike on Pakistan today? | BUY | 0.969 | $96.90 |
| 04-05 10:27 | Will Taiwan counter tariff the U.S. in April? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.80 |
| 04-05 09:54 | Will Chelsea die in Season 3 of the White Lotus? | BUY | 0.35 | $7.00 |
| 04-05 09:53 | Will Chelsea die in Season 3 of the White Lotus? | BUY | 0.35 | $3.50 |
| 04-05 09:52 | Will Chelsea die in Season 3 of the White Lotus? | BUY | 0.35 | $7.00 |
| 04-04 15:31 | Will Joe Milton be traded to the Cleveland Browns? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.12 |
| 04-04 15:31 | Will Joe Milton be traded to the Baltimore Ravens? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.00 |
| 04-04 15:30 | Will Joe Milton be traded to the New Orleans Saints? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 04-04 15:30 | Will Joe Milton be traded to the New York Giants? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.10 |
| 04-04 15:30 | Will Joe Milton be traded to the Carolina Panthers? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.10 |