0x4f9fc5c60f4314f5160906d9072235e09e887f43
- Realised P&L
- $-451.70
- Volume
- $18.3k
- Markets traded
- 207
- Open portfolio
- $60.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded207
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.605 | $22.30 | −$3.87 |
| Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.009 | $9.50 | +$4.13 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.400 | 0.350 | $8.75 | −$1.25 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.865 | $8.18 | +$2.41 |
| Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? · No | 0.170 | 0.150 | $4.90 | −$0.65 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.310 | 0.455 | $2.94 | +$0.94 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.065 | $1.86 | −$0.14 |
| Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? · No | 0.380 | 0.305 | $1.61 | −$0.39 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$65.78at 0.243Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
- +$55.84at 0.490Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
- +$55.57at 0.600Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
- +$45.58at 0.767Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
- +$40.33at 0.600Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 08:06 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.077 | $6.54 |
| 09-04 21:23 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET | BUY | 0.3799998681 | $1.21 |
| 09-04 21:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET | BUY | 0.4599999496 | $4.38 |
| 09-04 21:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET | BUY | 0.6934409086 | $19.03 |
| 09-04 07:35 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET | BUY | 0.6057402037 | $7.11 |
| 09-04 07:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET | BUY | 0.3499999803 | $7.11 |
| 09-04 07:31 | Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? | BUY | 0.1699999789 | $5.55 |
| 09-03 23:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET | SELL | 0.0797605473 | $1.40 |
| 09-03 23:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET | BUY | 0.5699999966 | $10.00 |
| 09-03 23:23 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET | BUY | 0.1543328961 | $10.00 |
| 09-03 23:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET | BUY | 0.4499999797 | $10.00 |
| 09-03 23:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET | SELL | 0.73 | $9.74 |
| 09-03 23:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET | BUY | 0.699999985 | $9.34 |
| 09-03 23:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET | BUY | 0.939999996 | $9.34 |
| 09-03 23:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET | SELL | 0.19 | $11.84 |