wahtsit
0x4f5de9ca599238c997e36365c0457a6ac8c14b54
- Realised P&L
- $-9.8k
- Volume
- $71.7k
- Markets traded
- 187
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-13.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded187
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.303 | 0.125 | $561.48 | −$799.56 |
| Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? · Yes | 0.443 | 0.850 | $442.00 | +$211.40 |
| Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.506 | 0.390 | $151.10 | −$44.79 |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? · Anthropic | 0.677 | 0.939 | $65.72 | +$18.33 |
| Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.250 | $3.85 | −$3.54 |
| Hermans/Marcondes vs. Becroft/Delaney: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 · Under | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.64 |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.840 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$84.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$301.45at 0.940Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?
- +$257.59at 0.277Will Red Star FC win on 2025-12-05?
- +$226.30at 0.589MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?
- +$94.34at 0.557Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 31-32°F on December 5?
- +$70.45at 0.262Bitcoin above $105,000 on June 6?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-01 14:16 | Hermans/Marcondes vs. Becroft/Delaney: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 | BUY | 0.009 | $9.64 |
| 05-31 17:34 | Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $19.00 |
| 05-31 17:34 | Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.46 | $115.00 |
| 05-24 00:01 | Total Kills Over/Under 34.5 in Game 4? | BUY | 0.99 | $19.80 |
| 05-24 00:01 | Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | BUY | 0.99 | $19.80 |
| 05-24 00:01 | Total Kills Over/Under 32.5 in Game 4? | BUY | 0.99 | $14.85 |
| 05-24 00:01 | Total Kills Over/Under 31.5 in Game 4? | BUY | 0.99 | $14.85 |
| 05-24 00:01 | Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | BUY | 0.99 | $14.85 |
| 05-17 07:06 | Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? | BUY | 0.98 | $4.90 |
| 05-17 07:05 | Game 2: Any Player Quadra Kill? | BUY | 0.98 | $4.90 |
| 05-16 22:35 | Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5 | BUY | 0.99 | $34.65 |
| 05-15 06:26 | Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? | BUY | 0.53 | $10.60 |
| 05-15 06:26 | Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.54 | $15.44 |
| 05-15 06:25 | Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $1.35 |
| 05-15 06:25 | Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? | BUY | 0.68 | $33.99 |