0x4f4186c125fa3cfc5d4219ec5be69e0f1480a33d
- Realised P&L
- $-87.43
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $53.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample37 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)37.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) · Norwich City FC | 0.520 | 0.475 | $18.23 | −$1.73 |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? · No | 0.998 | 0.995 | $9.96 | −$0.04 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.475 | $9.50 | −$0.50 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · No | 0.980 | 0.991 | $5.06 | +$0.06 |
| Discord IPO before 2027? · No | 0.922 | 0.895 | $2.91 | −$0.09 |
| Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · No | 0.984 | 0.992 | $2.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027? · No | 0.979 | 0.982 | $2.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? · No | 0.986 | 0.985 | $2.00 | −$0.00 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? · No | 0.989 | 0.992 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? · No | 0.996 | 0.997 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.42at 0.436Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5)
- +$11.85at 0.467Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-13?
- +$10.69at 0.658Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31?
- +$6.06at 0.887Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
- +$4.93at 0.896Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 00:44 | Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) | BUY | 0.5199999917 | $19.96 |
| 09-15 12:55 | Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-09-15? | BUY | 0.3499999948 | $10.00 |
| 09-15 12:51 | Spread: Elche CF (-1.5) | BUY | 0.9869999996 | $10.00 |
| 09-15 08:53 | Spread: Ipswich Town FC (-1.5) | BUY | 0.9789999996 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 13:22 | Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-09-14? | BUY | 0.4899999824 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 04:41 | LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Playoffs | BUY | 0.4499999843 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 03:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET | BUY | 0.9974507333 | $38.63 |
| 09-14 03:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET | BUY | 0.999 | $12.00 |
| 09-13 15:42 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-13? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $28.83 |
| 09-13 13:05 | Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.1589999994 | $10.00 |
| 09-13 05:32 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-13? | BUY | 0.4499999843 | $10.00 |
| 09-13 05:31 | Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) | BUY | 0.4199999966 | $10.00 |
| 09-13 02:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET | BUY | 0.9299998419 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 09:08 | Spread: Hull City AFC (-1.5) | BUY | 0.9829999994 | $10.00 |
| 09-12 09:08 | Spread: Hull City AFC (-2.5) | BUY | 0.999 | $10.00 |