RazvanelMan
0x4e2059e3e3bb2c31a9a4a0748e9278282a09ccb8
- Realised P&L
- $24.8k
- Volume
- $245.8k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $88.73
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar10.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration62.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)67.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration89.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? · Yes | 0.365 | 0.015 | $79.36 | −$1.8k |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.541 | 0.065 | $7.15 | −$52.35 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.085 | $0.85 | −$2.85 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.140 | $0.70 | −$1.75 |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.135 | $0.67 | −$0.62 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.101 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.191 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$48.00 |
| Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.063 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Warsh say "Task Force" 10+ times during September Press Conference? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.0kat 0.381Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$8.8kat 0.442Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
- +$449.87at 0.113Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?
- +$204.74at 0.672US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
- +$169.97at 0.027Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 14:52 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.1 | $18.00 |
| 09-16 14:48 | Will Warsh say "Task Force" 10+ times during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.4 | $4.00 |
| 09-16 14:45 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.37 | $3.70 |
| 09-02 13:17 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.43 | $2.15 |
| 09-02 13:16 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.43 | $2.15 |
| 07-10 20:38 | Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | BUY | 0.1399999426 | $2.00 |
| 07-10 20:00 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0629999811 | $3.00 |
| 06-30 12:10 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.101 | $10.00 |
| 06-30 12:10 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1129999903 | $10.00 |
| 06-30 12:09 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1939999872 | $10.00 |
| 06-20 17:50 | Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? | SELL | 0.16 | $9.41 |
| 06-20 17:31 | Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? | BUY | 0.1699999871 | $10.00 |
| 06-20 17:31 | Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? | BUY | 0.1499999887 | $10.00 |
| 06-15 20:28 | Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? | BUY | 0.299999982 | $10.00 |
| 06-14 20:59 | Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.7983235206 | $100.00 |