0x4e0e717d6113f448d053c4cc1479dfd3928437d6
0x4e0e717d6113f448d053c4cc1479dfd3928437d6
- Realised P&L
- $25.93
- Volume
- $10.6k
- Markets traded
- 125
- Open portfolio
- $88.26
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded125
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31? · Yes | 0.816 | 0.650 | $39.81 | −$10.19 |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes | 0.596 | 0.439 | $14.71 | −$5.29 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.450 | $14.52 | −$5.48 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.555 | $13.88 | −$6.13 |
| Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.087 | 0.052 | $2.63 | −$1.77 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.105 | $1.78 | −$9.07 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.045 | $0.94 | −$4.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$74.30at 0.721Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$21.29at 0.291Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$16.18at 0.110Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$12.44at 0.276Ledger IPO before 2027?
- +$11.66at 0.151US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 18:15 | Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $19.67 |
| 10-27 16:28 | Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | SELL | 0.56 | $16.47 |
| 10-26 18:14 | Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? | SELL | 0.751400168 | $53.66 |
| 10-26 10:45 | Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0709999985 | $3.00 |
| 10-26 10:45 | Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | SELL | 0.87 | $6.33 |
| 10-26 10:42 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.584 | $24.69 |
| 10-21 12:11 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | SELL | 0.79 | $21.94 |
| 10-21 12:07 | Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31? | SELL | 0.0123788182 | $1.98 |
| 10-21 07:02 | Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31? | BUY | 0.062592087 | $10.00 |
| 10-16 06:34 | Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo | SELL | 0.029 | $5.61 |
| 10-16 06:34 | Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo | SELL | 0.0306135331 | $5.93 |
| 10-11 13:36 | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.46 |
| 10-11 13:32 | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.03 |
| 10-11 13:32 | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.0859770372 | $1.99 |
| 10-11 13:14 | Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.03 |