0x4dc621b83d1f33b6307b5074880513eb78b9cd8a
0x4dc621b83d1f33b6307b5074880513eb78b9cd8a
- Realised P&L
- $-0.52
- Volume
- $300.66
- Markets traded
- 73
- Open portfolio
- $4.33
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded73
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.580 | $1.81 | +$0.81 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.325 | $1.30 | +$0.30 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.195 | $0.85 | −$0.15 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.265 | $0.37 | −$0.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.62at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
- +$5.94at 0.258Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on August 31, 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
- +$5.35at 0.278Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $183 Week of September 21 2026?
- +$3.82at 0.351Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 19:39 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 05:05 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 18:47 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 18:33 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 04:26 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 19:34 | Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.6199997024 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 09:33 | Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026 | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 01:23 | Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 17:15 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099997255 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 08:56 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 23:15 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $183 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $2.00 |
| 09-22 14:09 | Will Cracker Barrel say "Tailwind" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.439999956 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 11:08 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 22:27 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $2.00 |
| 09-04 00:37 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $260 Week of August 31 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |