NFspec
0x4cb87641fc8e649fafe728d536785b5d26c0e737
- Realised P&L
- $-174.41
- Volume
- $34.9k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $86.88
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.095 | $59.19 | −$40.64 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.043 | $15.05 | −$23.45 |
| ECB rate cut in 2026? · Yes | 0.148 | 0.045 | $12.64 | −$29.07 |
| ECB rate hike in 2026? · No | 0.186 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$295.45 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$84.00 |
| Lakers vs. Thunder · Lakers | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$276.78at 0.321Bank of England rate hike in 2026?
- +$76.80at 0.180Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
- +$75.90at 0.144Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31?
- +$72.89at 0.740Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$52.66at 0.790Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 20:29 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.42 | $84.00 |
| 08-01 13:51 | ECB rate cut in 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $21.72 |
| 06-22 20:42 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7299999967 | $54.54 |
| 06-22 20:41 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7299999989 | $150.00 |
| 06-22 20:38 | Bank of England rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.5956226926 | $211.34 |
| 05-13 22:56 | ECB rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $24.40 |
| 05-13 22:55 | Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? | SELL | 0.20463 | $20.46 |
| 05-06 11:06 | Bank of England rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999986 | $110.00 |
| 05-05 22:44 | Lakers vs. Thunder | BUY | 0.1499999964 | $31.00 |
| 05-05 22:41 | Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.12 | $30.00 |
| 05-05 22:40 | Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.11 | $27.83 |
| 05-04 18:54 | ECB rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $5.14 |
| 05-03 19:58 | ECB rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $35.00 |
| 05-03 19:57 | Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.029046451 | $263.88 |
| 04-24 23:10 | ECB rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $2.50 |