0x97acBbD34Ffd758673BF933103C878EE4A6a8BEd-1774163872915
0x4c8a6f46c40cc04d5553efe8c89f6e2035a0a328
- Realised P&L
- $-190.56
- Volume
- $8.6k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $50.33
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration92.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31? · Yes | 0.339 | 0.070 | $39.28 | −$152.08 |
| Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.007 | $11.05 | −$31.95 |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.34 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? · Yes | 0.409 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$132.50at 0.400Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
- +$10.88at 0.949Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
- +$-100.00at 0.507US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 06:58 | Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31? | BUY | 0.3385845127 | $191.36 |
| 10-01 05:50 | Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.0291909978 | $43.00 |
| 09-28 10:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET | BUY | 0.9399999996 | $100.00 |
| 09-28 10:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET | BUY | 0.95 | $100.00 |
| 09-28 06:05 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $232.50 |
| 06-17 15:53 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $100.00 |
| 06-17 15:47 | Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | BUY | 0.0069940191 | $29.34 |
| 06-17 15:40 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $100.00 |
| 06-13 14:02 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | BUY | 0.4095808087 | $100.00 |
| 06-13 13:51 | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY | 0.5066424781 | $100.00 |