0x4BC10494e9FF592c77C277471F2Cbcf63e2e6721-1772882594705
0x4bc10494e9ff592c77c277471f2cbcf63e2e6721
- Realised P&L
- $-168.69
- Volume
- $3.0k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $71.24
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.255 | $35.42 | +$10.42 |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.048 | 0.034 | $16.99 | −$7.00 |
| Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.535 | $10.70 | +$0.70 |
| Will Dune: Part Three win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.100 | $7.50 | −$5.25 |
| Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.075 | $0.63 | −$0.38 |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance · Norway | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? · No | 0.355 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance · Morocco | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$39.82at 0.174Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$36.75at 0.357Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance
- +$-3.84at 0.532Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 20?
- +$-15.26at 0.245Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
- +$-52.82at 0.636Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-20 13:50 | Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $1.00 |
| 08-19 12:30 | Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? | SELL | 0.0850381587 | $21.17 |
| 08-12 14:13 | Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 20? | SELL | 0.3441601664 | $6.62 |
| 08-10 17:56 | Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 20? | BUY | 0.5199999813 | $10.00 |
| 08-02 16:14 | Will Dune: Part Three win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.17 | $12.75 |
| 08-02 16:14 | Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 07-28 11:32 | US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.048 | $1.75 |
| 07-19 18:06 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.412 | $72.71 |
| 07-08 14:00 | France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.2199999936 | $20.00 |
| 07-07 09:14 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1799999952 | $25.00 |
| 07-07 09:05 | Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.3499999918 | $15.00 |
| 07-07 09:04 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.2399999918 | $20.00 |
| 07-05 20:08 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1699999955 | $30.00 |
| 07-05 20:07 | Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.3499999895 | $20.00 |
| 05-16 22:53 | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.097 | $9.70 |