PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x4BacC90e5008E3b28be88522B901E4AA71b45E79-1767908409746

0x4bacc90e5008e3b28be88522b901e4aa71b45e79

Realised P&L
$-3.6k
Volume
$5.40M
Markets traded
677
Open portfolio
$3.5k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded677
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration20.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration3.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? · Yes0.8891.000$105.00+$11.65
Will Unai Simón win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.9241.000$100.00+$7.56
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027? · No0.9280.949$99.59+$2.09
NATO article 5 before 2027? · No0.9340.947$99.43+$1.38
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No0.9500.955$98.97+$0.56
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? · No0.9660.959$95.85$0.75
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? · No0.9210.932$93.25+$1.15
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? · No0.8900.930$93.00+$4.00
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · No0.8990.885$92.93$1.43
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? · No0.8720.870$91.18$0.25
US recession by end of 2026? · No0.9180.905$90.50$1.35
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027? · No0.9670.966$89.88$0.14
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No0.8900.895$89.50+$0.50
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No0.7990.841$88.25+$4.35
Yoon out of custody before 2027? · No0.9430.934$83.59$0.76

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 21:03Netanyahu out by end of 2026?SELL0.48$9.60
09-17 20:33Netanyahu out by end of 2026?SELL0.48$9.60
09-17 20:03Netanyahu out by end of 2026?SELL0.48$9.30
09-17 20:03Netanyahu out by end of 2026?SELL0.48$15.55
09-17 18:35Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?BUY0.04$4.00
09-17 18:25Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?SELL0.951$14.08
09-17 14:50Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?BUY0.41$2.05
09-17 14:50Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?SELL0.59$56.06
09-17 13:18Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?SELL0.11$11.00
09-17 09:18Ripple Labs IPO before 2027?BUY0.21$1.05
09-17 09:17Ripple Labs IPO before 2027?BUY0.75$3.75
09-17 09:14Ripple Labs IPO before 2027?SELL0.22$1.10
09-17 08:40Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?SELL0.05$0.58
09-17 03:37Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?BUY0.9149999826$9.20
09-17 02:54Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?SELL0.93$18.12