FinStar
0x4b8f9b76b339e276a6cc4129c08f4015c6494a0f
- Realised P&L
- $-6.0k
- Volume
- $318.1k
- Markets traded
- 58
- Open portfolio
- $30.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded58
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)61.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.5kat 0.739Will Biden finish his term?
- +$1.9kat 0.802Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$1.6kat 0.870Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?
- +$1.0kat 0.874Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
- +$810.03at 0.926Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 14:07 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.849 | $5.3k |
| 09-25 14:00 | Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? | BUY | 0.4147382199 | $28.52 |
| 09-25 14:00 | Will exactly 7 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? | BUY | 0.7784600227 | $267.07 |
| 04-04 16:07 | Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.01 | $60.00 |
| 04-04 16:03 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.017 | $55.25 |
| 04-04 16:00 | Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.012 | $80.00 |
| 04-04 15:58 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $1.3k |
| 03-12 14:34 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.3783332405 | $1000.00 |
| 01-19 18:30 | US strike on Mexico by January 31? | SELL | 0.9680205519 | $1.3k |
| 01-09 04:15 | US strike on Mexico by January 31? | BUY | 0.7419159517 | $880.34 |
| 01-09 04:14 | US strike on Mexico by December 31? | BUY | 0.5943636364 | $980.70 |
| 11-20 23:42 | Will Trump disparage Zohran Mamdani on Friday? | BUY | 0.49 | $29.40 |
| 10-29 19:39 | Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.008 | $40.00 |
| 10-29 19:39 | Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.008 | $40.00 |
| 10-29 19:35 | No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.32 | $200.00 |