0x4af2bd546e90ec973c3456b81d88ee1832f13e4e
0x4af2bd546e90ec973c3456b81d88ee1832f13e4e
- Realised P&L
- $-33.04
- Volume
- $26.9k
- Markets traded
- 308
- Open portfolio
- $57.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded308
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$89.82at 0.803US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$86.40at 0.157Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?
- +$85.00at 0.150Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?
- +$84.43at 0.370Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?
- +$81.70at 0.146Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 11:47 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.84 | $4.20 |
| 09-15 11:47 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | SELL | 0.52 | $6.42 |
| 09-15 11:47 | Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.052 | $1.04 |
| 09-15 11:46 | Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.28 | $3.70 |
| 09-15 11:46 | Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.21 | $5.99 |
| 09-15 11:45 | Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.014 | $0.09 |
| 07-05 05:59 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.64 | $10.41 |
| 07-05 05:59 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $13.20 |
| 07-05 05:59 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL | 0.958 | $14.11 |
| 07-05 05:59 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | SELL | 0.84 | $14.89 |
| 07-05 05:58 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | SELL | 0.9 | $16.41 |
| 07-05 05:58 | Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $17.09 |
| 07-05 05:58 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.5494261644 | $34.56 |
| 07-05 05:58 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $45.24 |
| 07-05 05:58 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $72.07 |