pombos
0x4ae63b5b9b4046adabae27a7863e0caa1a5d8e75
- Realised P&L
- $-15.55
- Volume
- $6.7k
- Markets traded
- 240
- Open portfolio
- $178.90
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded240
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$26.91at 0.210Kash Patel out by December 31?
- +$26.51at 0.430Kash Patel out by June 30?
- +$23.57at 0.560Kash Patel out by May 31?
- +$11.38at 0.430Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on October 29?
- +$11.34at 0.410Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C on October 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 20:00 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 1? | SELL | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 11-01 14:59 | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on November 1? | SELL | 0.99825 | $19.96 |
| 11-01 05:18 | Will Anthropic be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $1.88 |
| 10-30 21:25 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on October 30? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.20 |
| 10-30 20:00 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on October 30? | SELL | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 10-30 01:00 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on October 29? | SELL | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 10-29 20:01 | Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan? | SELL | 0.5 | $5.50 |
| 10-28 20:00 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on October 28? | SELL | 0.9719941119 | $9.90 |
| 10-28 19:48 | Will a UK social media ban take effect by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.61 | $11.87 |
| 10-27 12:30 | Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 9°C on October 27? | SELL | 0.39 | $3.90 |
| 10-27 12:29 | Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 9°C on October 27? | SELL | 0.4 | $4.00 |
| 10-27 09:43 | Will Claude Fable's output price be at or above $55 in 2026? | SELL | 0.83 | $16.60 |
| 10-26 05:59 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on October 25? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.40 |
| 10-25 10:11 | Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? | SELL | 0.91 | $16.94 |
| 10-18 22:56 | Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by December 31? | SELL | 0.164 | $8.20 |