0x4a930b79ddEdB4b5e649C97508A1dB2eaEf91F57-1777051810449
0x4a930b79ddedb4b5e649c97508a1db2eaef91f57
- Realised P&L
- $-9.02
- Volume
- $64.18
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $8.05
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-14.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration90.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon 2026 capex above $170B? · Yes | 0.917 | 0.984 | $4.77 | +$0.32 |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.875 | $2.40 | +$0.40 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.160 | $0.48 | −$0.52 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.059 | $0.23 | −$0.77 |
| Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.090 | $0.16 | −$0.84 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.168 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.93 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Will Sporting CP finish 2nd in the Primeira Liga for the 2025-26 season? · No | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.99 |
| Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? · Yes | 0.121 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.08at 0.490US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?
- +$0.11at 0.500Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?
- +$0.11at 0.906Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$0.01at 0.970Will Schalke 04 achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?
- +$-0.76at 0.960Will Benfica finish 2nd in the Primeira Liga for the 2025-26 season?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-04 14:43 | Will Benfica finish 2nd in the Primeira Liga for the 2025-26 season? | SELL | 0.23 | $0.24 |
| 05-02 15:06 | Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 05-02 15:05 | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.955 | $2.10 |
| 04-30 01:45 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.04 | $0.08 |
| 04-28 17:57 | Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? | BUY | 0.55 | $1.00 |
| 04-28 13:21 | Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? | BUY | 0.11 | $1.10 |
| 04-27 19:18 | Amazon 2026 capex above $170B? | BUY | 0.95 | $2.46 |
| 04-27 19:15 | Will Schalke 04 achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season? | SELL | 0.981 | $1.00 |
| 04-27 19:10 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $0.67 |
| 04-27 18:53 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $0.17 |
| 04-27 18:48 | Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? | SELL | 0.86 | $0.26 |
| 04-27 18:38 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $0.53 |
| 04-24 23:23 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? | BUY | 0.2599998648 | $1.00 |
| 04-24 23:23 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? | BUY | 0.3299997822 | $1.00 |
| 04-24 22:03 | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.9059997173 | $2.00 |