MichaelEvans9566
0x4a59a4b7d5cf3f20f645bd42a66ab247a359a320
- Realised P&L
- $2.2k
- Volume
- $199.2k
- Markets traded
- 285
- Open portfolio
- $676.12
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded285
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win more than 84.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? · U 84.5 | 0.650 | 0.934 | $518.65 | +$157.90 |
| Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.240 | 0.925 | $110.08 | +$81.52 |
| Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.075 | $44.10 | −$102.90 |
| Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? · No | 0.570 | 0.770 | $2.31 | +$0.60 |
| 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? · No | 0.982 | 0.985 | $0.98 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$978.00at 0.230Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
- +$436.79at 0.231US Catanzaro 1929 vs. Modena FC 2018: O/U 3.5
- +$391.20at 0.600XRP Up or Down - February 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
- +$283.20at 0.300Will Larry Ellison buy the Seattle Seahawks?
- +$263.20at 0.300Ethereum ETF Flows on February 17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-16 05:34 | New pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $2.50 |
| 04-13 15:44 | Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | SELL | 0.002 | $1.18 |
| 04-13 15:42 | Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.06 |
| 04-12 08:56 | Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30? | SELL | 0.76 | $79.04 |
| 04-12 03:23 | Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | BUY | 0.719 | $443.62 |
| 04-11 05:25 | Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30? | BUY | 0.78 | $81.12 |
| 04-09 23:13 | Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? | SELL | 0.812 | $617.12 |
| 04-09 14:01 | Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? | SELL | 0.452 | $17.63 |
| 04-09 12:33 | Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? | SELL | 0.81 | $93.15 |
| 04-09 12:32 | Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? | SELL | 0.81 | $297.27 |
| 04-09 12:32 | Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? | SELL | 0.81 | $296.46 |
| 04-07 11:53 | Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? | BUY | 0.858 | $652.08 |
| 04-07 10:21 | Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? | BUY | 0.61 | $517.28 |
| 03-30 13:44 | Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.78 | $141.18 |
| 03-30 13:37 | Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.78 | $241.02 |