PolyBot

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Traders

MichaelEvans9566

0x4a59a4b7d5cf3f20f645bd42a66ab247a359a320

Realised P&L
$2.2k
Volume
$199.2k
Markets traded
285
Open portfolio
$676.12

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded285
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration21.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration76.7% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win more than 84.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? · U 84.50.6500.934$518.65+$157.90
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No0.2400.925$110.08+$81.52
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2500.075$44.10$102.90
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? · No0.5700.770$2.31+$0.60
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? · No0.9820.985$0.98+$0.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-16 05:34New pandemic in 2026?SELL0.1$2.50
04-13 15:44Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?SELL0.002$1.18
04-13 15:42Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?SELL0.002$0.06
04-12 08:56Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?SELL0.76$79.04
04-12 03:23Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?BUY0.719$443.62
04-11 05:25Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?BUY0.78$81.12
04-09 23:13Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?SELL0.812$617.12
04-09 14:01Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?SELL0.452$17.63
04-09 12:33Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?SELL0.81$93.15
04-09 12:32Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?SELL0.81$297.27
04-09 12:32Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?SELL0.81$296.46
04-07 11:53Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?BUY0.858$652.08
04-07 10:21Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?BUY0.61$517.28
03-30 13:44Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?SELL0.78$141.18
03-30 13:37Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?SELL0.78$241.02