pegfault
0x4a2313b6abb5229f02cd380c9fb7a884ecef079f
- Realised P&L
- $-9.3k
- Volume
- $392.7k
- Markets traded
- 73
- Open portfolio
- $58.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded73
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)79.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.2kat 0.611Biden drops out of presidential race?
- +$1.1kat 0.780Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31?
- +$860.01at 0.877Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
- +$840.00at 0.944Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
- +$700.00at 0.640Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-13 04:42 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | BUY | 0.68997622 | $3.4k |
| 01-16 05:08 | New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? | BUY | 0.989 | $11.6k |
| 01-13 05:58 | Will Hyperliquid hit $30 in January? | BUY | 0.82 | $328.00 |
| 01-13 05:58 | Will Hyperliquid hit $30 in January? | BUY | 0.8 | $29.42 |
| 01-08 04:27 | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | SELL | 0.78 | $3.9k |
| 01-08 04:27 | No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.92 | $4.6k |
| 01-07 05:26 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.8k |
| 01-07 05:26 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | BUY | 0.7 | $3.5k |
| 01-07 05:25 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? | BUY | 0.702 | $32.35 |
| 01-07 05:25 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? | BUY | 0.701 | $104.86 |
| 01-07 05:21 | US government shutdown Saturday? | BUY | 0.79 | $3.6k |
| 01-07 05:17 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.964 | $1.4k |
| 01-07 05:15 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.964 | $4.8k |
| 01-07 05:15 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.35 | $4.9k |
| 01-07 05:14 | Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30? | BUY | 0.79 | $395.00 |