PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

pegfault

0x4a2313b6abb5229f02cd380c9fb7a884ecef079f

Realised P&L
$-9.3k
Volume
$392.7k
Markets traded
73
Open portfolio
$58.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded73
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration28.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample44 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)79.5%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration23.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No0.9600.903$13.6k$840.36
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.5400.645$12.2k+$2.0k
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.5870.512$7.6k$1.1k
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? · Yes0.7001.000$7.5k+$2.3k
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No0.9570.980$6.2k+$147.61
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.9660.983$4.9k+$81.86
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? · No0.6900.715$3.6k+$125.12
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? · No0.7011.000$1.0k+$298.50
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30? · No0.7851.000$1.0k+$215.00
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.1500.182$912.50+$162.50
US bank failure by March 31? · No0.7300.000$0.00$1.1k
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League? · Yes0.1150.000$0.00$1.3k
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? · Yes0.5700.000$0.00$570.00
Cowboys vs. Lions · Cowboys0.3800.000$0.00$380.00
US government shutdown Saturday? · No0.7900.000$0.00$4.0k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
03-13 04:42Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?BUY0.68997622$3.4k
01-16 05:08New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? BUY0.989$11.6k
01-13 05:58Will Hyperliquid hit $30 in January?BUY0.82$328.00
01-13 05:58Will Hyperliquid hit $30 in January?BUY0.8$29.42
01-08 04:27Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?SELL0.78$3.9k
01-08 04:27No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?BUY0.92$4.6k
01-07 05:26SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?BUY0.7$1.8k
01-07 05:26SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?BUY0.7$3.5k
01-07 05:25Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?BUY0.702$32.35
01-07 05:25Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?BUY0.701$104.86
01-07 05:21US government shutdown Saturday?BUY0.79$3.6k
01-07 05:17Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.964$1.4k
01-07 05:15Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.964$4.8k
01-07 05:15Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.35$4.9k
01-07 05:14Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?BUY0.79$395.00