PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

willydh

0x4910842d27c641e6c23c6680c115da4db100c095

Realised P&L
$-51.6k
Volume
$1.88M
Markets traded
53
Open portfolio
$74.38

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded53
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration59.2% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration70.6% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes0.2400.018$52.50$667.49
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.0590.013$13.50$45.50
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.3960.006$6.57$393.08
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No0.9340.960$1.82+$0.05
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? · No0.9200.000$0.00$29.7k
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? · No0.8910.000$0.00$5.9k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-04 08:34Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?SELL0.04898622$48.99
07-05 04:23Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?SELL0.986$1.3k
07-05 04:23Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?SELL0.964$265.88
07-05 04:23Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?SELL0.964$1.1k
07-05 04:23Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?SELL0.964$691.02
07-05 04:23Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?SELL0.964$544.10
07-05 04:23Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?SELL0.964$912.36
05-21 01:04Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?BUY0.96$19.2k
05-20 06:54Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?BUY0.934$7.9k
05-20 06:53Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?BUY0.934$18.7k
05-18 09:13Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?BUY0.935$18.7k
05-11 06:23MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?BUY0.7$1.4k
05-11 03:14MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?BUY0.65$1.3k
05-11 03:14MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?BUY0.64$226.63
05-11 03:13MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?SELL0.332$11.63