willydh
0x4910842d27c641e6c23c6680c115da4db100c095
- Realised P&L
- $-51.6k
- Volume
- $1.88M
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $74.38
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.018 | $52.50 | −$667.49 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.059 | 0.013 | $13.50 | −$45.50 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.396 | 0.006 | $6.57 | −$393.08 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.934 | 0.960 | $1.82 | +$0.05 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.7k |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.891 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.9k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$39.0kat 0.724Trump out as President by June 30?
- +$5.0kat 0.965Xi Jinping out in 2025?
- +$3.1kat 0.657MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$2.7kat 0.934MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?
- +$2.3kat 0.817Ethereum all time high in 2024?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 08:34 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.04898622 | $48.99 |
| 07-05 04:23 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.986 | $1.3k |
| 07-05 04:23 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.964 | $265.88 |
| 07-05 04:23 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.964 | $1.1k |
| 07-05 04:23 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.964 | $691.02 |
| 07-05 04:23 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.964 | $544.10 |
| 07-05 04:23 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.964 | $912.36 |
| 05-21 01:04 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $19.2k |
| 05-20 06:54 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.934 | $7.9k |
| 05-20 06:53 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.934 | $18.7k |
| 05-18 09:13 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.935 | $18.7k |
| 05-11 06:23 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.4k |
| 05-11 03:14 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $1.3k |
| 05-11 03:14 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $226.63 |
| 05-11 03:13 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.332 | $11.63 |