machiavelia
0x48ecc049f171a8c7758e5d351e5f6c3c6df58f36
- Realised P&L
- $86.1k
- Volume
- $1.37M
- Markets traded
- 1,331
- Open portfolio
- $8.2k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- CautionMarkets traded1,331
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration17.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.9kat 0.001Will MFK Skalica win on 2026-05-02?
- +$7.7kat 0.014Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$3.7kat 0.141Set Handicap: Siniakova (-1.5) vs Bouzkova (+1.5)
- +$3.4kat 0.150Will Apple (AAPL) close above $265 on March 2?
- +$3.1kat 0.118Will Ryan Fox win the 2026 The Open Championship?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-16 18:28 | Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m? | BUY | 0.4471525648 | $3.4k |
| 04-18 15:23 | T20 Series Namibia vs Scotland: Namibia vs Scotland | BUY | 0.01 | $16.01 |
| 04-15 14:23 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.515 | $929.06 |
| 04-14 20:23 | Games Total: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.01 | $16.53 |
| 04-13 21:23 | Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-04-13? | BUY | 0.0795595588 | $71.56 |
| 04-12 14:54 | Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-12? | BUY | 0.0364922587 | $37.75 |
| 04-11 15:54 | Will Brentford FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.06 | $53.90 |
| 04-09 19:53 | Will Al Riyadh Saudi Club win on 2026-04-09? | BUY | 0.0449608355 | $34.44 |
| 04-06 00:23 | Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-05? | BUY | 0.1286891089 | $135.50 |
| 03-31 19:53 | Will Peru win on 2026-03-31? | BUY | 0.01 | $8.69 |
| 03-26 20:53 | Will Justin Bieber drop out as a Coachella 2026 Headliner? | BUY | 0.411 | $26.76 |
| 03-23 11:17 | NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9010252101 | $1.1k |
| 03-10 21:52 | Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10? | BUY | 0.01 | $3.94 |
| 03-03 04:30 | Will Trump visit China by March 31? | SELL | 0.4047036242 | $605.02 |
| 03-03 04:30 | Will Trump visit China by March 31? | SELL | 0.4329162577 | $152.61 |