PolyBot

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Traders

machiavelia

0x48ecc049f171a8c7758e5d351e5f6c3c6df58f36

Realised P&L
$86.2k
Volume
$1.37M
Markets traded
1,331
Open portfolio
$7.3k

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar6.3%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
CautionMarkets traded1,331
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration13.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration25.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? · No0.3110.971$1.9k+$1.3k
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? · No0.4430.979$1.3k+$725.74
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? · Yes0.3970.998$1.3k+$766.95
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? · No0.4310.981$909.90+$509.94
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? · No0.4310.921$855.15+$455.18
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? · No0.4100.925$402.66+$224.18
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No0.4410.953$344.81+$185.16
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027? · No0.4210.986$171.64+$98.32
Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027? · No0.4200.975$68.31+$38.87
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? · No0.4200.990$51.18+$29.46
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No0.4720.982$14.57+$7.57
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027? · No0.4700.981$1.55+$0.81

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-16 18:28Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?BUY0.4471525648$3.4k
04-18 15:23T20 Series Namibia vs Scotland: Namibia vs ScotlandBUY0.01$16.01
04-15 14:23Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?SELL0.515$929.06
04-14 20:23Games Total: O/U 2.5BUY0.01$16.53
04-13 21:23Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-04-13?BUY0.0795595588$71.56
04-12 14:54Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-12?BUY0.0364922587$37.75
04-11 15:54Will Brentford FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw?BUY0.06$53.90
04-09 19:53Will Al Riyadh Saudi Club win on 2026-04-09?BUY0.0449608355$34.44
04-06 00:23Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-05?BUY0.1286891089$135.50
03-31 19:53Will Peru win on 2026-03-31?BUY0.01$8.69
03-26 20:53Will Justin Bieber drop out as a Coachella 2026 Headliner?BUY0.411$26.76
03-23 11:17NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?SELL0.9010252101$1.1k
03-10 21:52Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10?BUY0.01$3.94
03-03 04:30Will Trump visit China by March 31?SELL0.4047036242$605.02
03-03 04:30Will Trump visit China by March 31?SELL0.4329162577$152.61