1757853877736
0x48327b886e4e7bd66c8724b5418187e02730bb63
- Realised P&L
- $-959.16
- Volume
- $30.4k
- Markets traded
- 118
- Open portfolio
- $0.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded118
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.002 | $0.15 | −$40.85 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 25? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 24? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.00 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$48.00 |
| Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$47.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$195.62at 0.741Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 7?
- +$110.16at 0.875Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 16?
- +$84.97at 0.150Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 30?
- +$83.97at 0.160Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 15?
- +$80.88at 0.837Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 03:55 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.82 | $47.56 |
| 09-30 05:36 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.15 | $0.75 |
| 09-23 08:45 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.28 | $22.41 |
| 09-18 09:07 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 18? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.20 |
| 09-18 04:17 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.44 | $11.00 |
| 09-14 11:34 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 14? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.20 |
| 09-13 07:25 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 13? | SELL | 0.019 | $1.90 |
| 08-31 11:35 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.48 | $48.00 |
| 08-27 17:48 | Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.65 | $52.00 |
| 08-27 17:40 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on August 28? | BUY | 0.66 | $39.60 |
| 08-20 07:03 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 20? | SELL | 0.01 | $2.00 |
| 08-19 15:40 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 19? | SELL | 0.999 | $499.48 |
| 08-18 16:10 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 19? | BUY | 0.97 | $103.00 |
| 08-18 16:09 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 18? | SELL | 0.999 | $499.50 |
| 08-18 03:40 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 18? | BUY | 0.8 | $26.92 |