0x47Fb5C7426883312FE1D21D833026B2b02814D63-1761653520381
0x47fb5c7426883312fe1d21d833026b2b02814d63
- Realised P&L
- $284.04
- Volume
- $10.8k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $32.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)65.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.910 | $19.11 | +$0.42 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.977 | $13.29 | +$0.64 |
| Pistons vs. Wizards · Wizards | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.96 |
| Nets vs. Kings · Nets | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$75.90 |
| Spurs vs. Heat · Heat | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$70.35 |
| Knicks vs. Nets · Nets | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.50 |
| Pelicans vs. Kings · Pelicans | 0.587 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$162.58 |
| Heat vs. Pacers · Heat | 0.800 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$408.00 |
| Bucks vs. Suns · Suns | 0.830 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$122.01 |
| Cavaliers vs. Bucks · Bucks | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.40 |
| Mavericks vs. Grizzlies · Grizzlies | 0.349 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$90.74 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$421.48at 0.614Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers
- +$286.89at 0.49576ers vs. Heat
- +$268.85at 0.605Hawks vs. Knicks
- +$238.40at 0.700Spurs vs. Warriors
- +$225.68at 0.440Nuggets vs. Lakers
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 09:41 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $12.65 |
| 08-25 09:52 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | SELL | 0.996 | $14.44 |
| 07-29 07:34 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.945 | $13.70 |
| 07-29 07:20 | Will the Democratic Party win the CA-29 House seat? | SELL | 0.9535108974 | $14.87 |
| 06-30 09:54 | Will the Democratic Party win the CA-29 House seat? | BUY | 0.94 | $14.66 |
| 06-24 09:49 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SELL | 0.98 | $21.56 |
| 05-23 09:21 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.982 | $21.60 |
| 05-14 10:44 | Negative GDP growth in 2026? | SELL | 0.9564791597 | $113.82 |
| 05-14 10:33 | Negative GDP growth in 2026? | BUY | 0.961 | $114.36 |
| 04-18 09:39 | Hawks vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.68 | $233.43 |
| 04-06 10:54 | Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets | BUY | 0.77 | $106.31 |
| 04-03 08:25 | Pelicans vs. Kings | BUY | 0.64 | $175.33 |
| 04-02 09:07 | Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers | BUY | 0.7 | $384.94 |
| 04-01 10:32 | Spurs vs. Warriors | BUY | 0.89 | $353.65 |
| 03-31 08:27 | Suns vs. Magic | BUY | 0.53 | $103.01 |