PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

merch

0x45e856f0023259664606b6c370e82d072b24cc6c

Realised P&L
$2.2k
Volume
$362.3k
Markets traded
334
Open portfolio
$10.9k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded334
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration19.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration19.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8400.825$2.1k−$38.09
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes0.9260.925$1.5k−$1.14
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.8260.846$1.3k+$28.69
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No0.8620.945$1.1k+$95.25
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · No0.8660.964$964.00+$98.00
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · No0.9100.945$850.50+$31.50
Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No0.8500.955$573.00+$63.00
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? · No0.8700.820$410.00−$25.00
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? · No0.8870.913$380.72+$10.96
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? · No0.6900.735$367.50+$22.50
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.7250.955$334.13+$80.53
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? · No0.5600.885$278.77+$102.33
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes0.5370.986$197.20+$89.80
Iran leadership change by December 31? · No0.6820.860$177.70+$36.82
No one announced as next James Bond? · No0.7820.859$171.70+$15.30

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-26 04:10Browns vs. Steelers: O/U 40.5BUY0.55$74.25
10-25 22:50Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.36$55.80
10-25 22:49Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.369$332.10
10-24 16:49Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL0.8$204.02
10-15 15:36Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?SELL0.72$359.28
10-13 17:142026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseBUY0.91$819.00
10-13 16:26Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?BUY0.88$470.80
10-13 16:25Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY0.91$591.50
10-13 16:24Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.84$252.00
10-13 16:24Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.865$605.50
10-12 05:05Cowboys vs. PackersBUY0.5$50.00
10-12 04:42Saints vs. GiantsBUY0.49$343.00
10-11 13:35Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?BUY0.97$298.76
10-11 13:34Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?BUY0.949$27.52
10-11 13:31Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?BUY0.9311997559$419.55