0x4522c579fc247080c086193aceeb1eaf21408e91
0x4522c579fc247080c086193aceeb1eaf21408e91
- Realised P&L
- $-21.40
- Volume
- $774.05
- Markets traded
- 142
- Open portfolio
- $6.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded142
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+? · No | 0.750 | 0.980 | $1.31 | +$0.31 |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? · No | 0.689 | 0.892 | $1.30 | +$0.30 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on October 20? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.760 | $1.19 | +$0.19 |
| Lam Research (LRCX) Q1 China revenue mix <22%? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.255 | $1.11 | +$0.11 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.750 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $680 Week of October 19 2026? · No | 0.470 | 0.175 | $0.37 | −$0.63 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.065 | $0.20 | −$1.51 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.030 | $0.06 | −$0.94 |
| Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? · Yes | 0.499 | 0.032 | $0.06 | −$0.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.94at 0.164Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?
- +$7.68at 0.256Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?
- +$7.44at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$6.01at 0.306Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5
- +$5.62at 0.270Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 13:25 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-20 05:25 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on October 20? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 09:24 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $680 Week of October 19 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 01:24 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 17:24 | Lam Research (LRCX) Q1 China revenue mix <22%? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 09:24 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 01:03 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.2389999668 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 16:53 | United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 08:46 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 21:51 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.6889999097 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 12:29 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 16? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 03:59 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? | BUY | 0.498999755 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 19:11 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 10:28 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 02:27 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |