darthgeek1338
0x44fccfc4f7653fc79c386d1bcb2181d730a4ac29
- Realised P&L
- $2.2k
- Volume
- $949.6k
- Markets traded
- 1,101
- Open portfolio
- $5.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,101
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration43.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.6kat 0.677Grok 4.4 released by June 30?
- +$1.5kat 0.544Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
- +$1.5kat 0.544Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
- +$1.5kat 0.544Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
- +$1.5kat 0.544Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 20:38 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31? | BUY | 0.6554113868 | $185.68 |
| 08-03 20:32 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30? | BUY | 0.8787043189 | $264.49 |
| 08-03 20:32 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode? | BUY | 0.91 | $9.10 |
| 08-03 20:31 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode? | BUY | 0.915285881 | $78.44 |
| 08-03 20:20 | Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.95 | $190.00 |
| 08-03 20:14 | Will AMD say "GPU" 10+ times during earnings call? | SELL | 0.04 | $1.64 |
| 08-03 20:13 | Will AMD say "CPU" 20+ times during earnings call? | SELL | 0.05 | $2.05 |
| 08-03 20:09 | Will SpaceX say "Tesla" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.79 | $23.70 |
| 08-03 20:07 | Will SpaceX say "Mars" during earnings call? | SELL | 0.18 | $18.00 |
| 08-01 08:16 | Will SpaceX say "Elon" or "Musk" 3+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.9796222447 | $251.55 |
| 08-01 08:16 | Will SpaceX say "Cursor" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.93 | $9.30 |
| 07-31 01:11 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9823396051 | $379.57 |
| 07-31 01:10 | Nothing Ever Happens: July | BUY | 0.9979817167 | $818.76 |
| 07-28 22:48 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.7689999955 | $85.00 |
| 07-28 22:47 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | SELL | 0.82 | $88.23 |