0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319
- Realised P&L
- $968.7k
- Volume
- $84.29M
- Markets traded
- 7,629
- Open portfolio
- $480.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded7,629
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration48.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$178.3kat 0.159Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$124.1kat 0.410Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary?
- +$102.0kat 0.729Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$100.4kat 0.364Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
- +$98.4kat 0.106Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 21:13 | Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.36 | $8.5k |
| 11-01 21:13 | Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.36 | $5.5k |
| 11-01 17:52 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.28 | $3.6k |
| 11-01 17:51 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.28 | $14.0k |
| 11-01 17:32 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $15.1k |
| 11-01 16:58 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | SELL | 0.71 | $14.5k |
| 11-01 09:20 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | SELL | 0.2258983423 | $2.8k |
| 10-31 14:35 | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.73 | $5.2k |
| 10-31 14:16 | Will the Republican Party win the KS-02 House seat? | SELL | 0.21 | $11.82 |
| 10-31 12:08 | Rogers flips El-Sayed for Michigan Senate by November 2? | BUY | 0.95 | $20.90 |
| 10-31 12:05 | Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2? | BUY | 0.9908923313 | $368.13 |
| 10-31 12:04 | Rogers flips El-Sayed for Michigan Senate by November 2? | BUY | 0.94 | $40.96 |
| 10-31 11:17 | Osborn flips Ricketts for Nebraska Senate by November 2? | BUY | 0.9591039682 | $1.3k |
| 10-31 11:09 | Rogers flips El-Sayed for Michigan Senate by November 2? | BUY | 0.9370930233 | $80.59 |
| 10-31 11:04 | Michigan Senate favorite on November 2? | BUY | 0.9698125354 | $993.07 |