0x4365De1cD672401B7aDe9E21ED37E4F66f2DE20A-1751765718565
0x4365de1cd672401b7ade9e21ed37e4f66f2de20a
- Realised P&L
- $-28.71
- Volume
- $7.4k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $204.46
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$80.00at 0.200Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$29.35at 0.460Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$23.94at 0.490US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
- +$23.62at 0.6795kt meteor strike in 2025?
- +$19.50at 0.188Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 11:36 | Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $4.68 |
| 09-20 13:29 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $2.85 |
| 09-18 16:45 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $2.70 |
| 09-17 19:12 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | SELL | 0.05 | $0.30 |
| 09-17 19:11 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | BUY | 0.06 | $0.36 |
| 09-15 23:18 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.31 | $2.11 |
| 09-15 00:07 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.53 | $7.42 |
| 09-12 13:27 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $7.20 |
| 09-09 16:01 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | BUY | 0.5 | $6.00 |
| 09-04 01:49 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September? | BUY | 0.65 | $7.15 |
| 09-02 00:09 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.75 |
| 09-02 00:08 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September? | BUY | 0.4395389529 | $6.00 |
| 09-01 03:10 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $9.00 |
| 08-31 22:40 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? | BUY | 0.55 | $2.75 |
| 08-31 22:40 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $18.96 |