Orval1
0x435f25874a56f4553dae9ac9594f5dd03f145bd5
- Realised P&L
- $-54.42
- Volume
- $3.9k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $43.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)87.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.76at 0.369Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?
- +$7.19at 0.361Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?
- +$5.45at 0.487Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
- +$3.29at 0.597Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
- +$2.97at 0.627Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 17:15 | Will an F1 race be held in Qatar in 2026? | BUY | 0.4899999824 | $5.00 |
| 10-11 17:14 | Will an F1 race be held in the United Arab Emirates in 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 10-11 17:00 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October? | BUY | 0.6899996964 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 16:58 | Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31? | BUY | 0.449999964 | $5.00 |
| 10-11 16:58 | Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $6.00 |
| 10-07 21:07 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 10? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 21:04 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1319999996 | $5.00 |
| 10-07 21:04 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0809999988 | $5.00 |
| 10-07 21:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET | SELL | 0.98 | $8.45 |
| 10-07 21:01 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET | BUY | 0.5799999768 | $5.00 |
| 09-27 19:21 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.629999995 | $5.00 |
| 09-27 19:21 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.6099999756 | $5.00 |
| 09-18 19:41 | Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0449999984 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 19:40 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $5.00 |
| 09-18 19:39 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $5.00 |