Trashbag
0x42fa340061a94072a818e540c3e80d8148d81fc7
- Realised P&L
- $-2.6k
- Volume
- $3.18M
- Markets traded
- 159
- Open portfolio
- $416.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded159
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.9kat 0.970Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?
- +$6.2kat 0.813Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$5.1kat 0.953Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?
- +$5.0kat 0.920Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$2.7kat 0.983Aster all time high by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 02:57 | Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9299072094 | $2.9k |
| 08-31 02:34 | Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 9M ETH before 2027? | BUY | 0.9127160494 | $73.93 |
| 08-31 02:32 | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BUY | 0.9399452889 | $8.5k |
| 08-30 12:38 | Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9451618115 | $1.5k |
| 08-27 02:14 | Lecornu out as French PM by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9795031574 | $1.8k |
| 08-27 02:02 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.93 | $5.6k |
| 08-26 23:27 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.93 | $7.4k |
| 08-24 04:25 | Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 9M ETH before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $433.39 |
| 08-24 04:25 | Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 7M ETH before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $34.00 |
| 08-24 04:20 | Macron out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9524543823 | $1.3k |
| 08-23 00:57 | Macron out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $13.89 |
| 08-11 17:01 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.93 | $4.5k |
| 08-09 14:29 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.919 | $15.3k |
| 08-06 08:19 | Macron out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $46.07 |
| 08-01 12:24 | Macron out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9253228296 | $173.84 |