PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Trashbag

0x42fa340061a94072a818e540c3e80d8148d81fc7

Realised P&L
$-2.6k
Volume
$3.18M
Markets traded
159
Open portfolio
$416.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded159
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration41.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration16.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? · No0.9060.988$69.4k+$5.8k
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No0.9070.973$60.7k+$4.1k
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.9330.983$50.8k+$2.6k
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.8900.980$50.6k+$4.6k
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? · No0.9030.988$42.7k+$3.6k
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? · No0.8820.980$40.1k+$4.0k
China x Japan military clash before 2027? · No0.9130.967$39.4k+$2.2k
NATO article 5 before 2027? · No0.9350.941$12.0k+$64.74
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? · No0.9230.963$10.7k+$438.60
Macron out by December 31, 2026? · No0.9430.982$8.8k+$344.73
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No0.7970.969$5.8k+$1.0k
Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026? · No0.8580.986$4.5k+$586.51
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.9550.994$4.0k+$154.61
Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027? · No0.9280.947$3.8k+$75.23
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? · No0.9300.965$3.0k+$108.14

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 02:57Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9299072094$2.9k
08-31 02:34Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 9M ETH before 2027?BUY0.9127160494$73.93
08-31 02:32NATO article 5 before 2027?BUY0.9399452889$8.5k
08-30 12:38Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9451618115$1.5k
08-27 02:14Lecornu out as French PM by September 30, 2026?BUY0.9795031574$1.8k
08-27 02:02China x Japan military clash before 2027?BUY0.93$5.6k
08-26 23:27China x Japan military clash before 2027?BUY0.93$7.4k
08-24 04:25Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 9M ETH before 2027?BUY0.9$433.39
08-24 04:25Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 7M ETH before 2027?BUY0.85$34.00
08-24 04:20Macron out by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9524543823$1.3k
08-23 00:57Macron out by December 31, 2026?BUY0.95$13.89
08-11 17:01China x Japan military clash before 2027?BUY0.93$4.5k
08-09 14:29Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?SELL0.919$15.3k
08-06 08:19Macron out by December 31, 2026?BUY0.95$46.07
08-01 12:24Macron out by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9253228296$173.84