0x42c761c00071a05f2b996ac11eb5689b3effc3de
- Realised P&L
- $-36.27
- Volume
- $3.7k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $6.26
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.045 | $2.81 | −$2.19 |
| UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.040 | $0.81 | −$0.19 |
| Russia coup attempt in 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.075 | $0.75 | −$0.25 |
| James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.028 | $0.70 | −$1.07 |
| Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.110 | $0.69 | −$0.31 |
| Nick Fuentes federally charged? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.035 | $0.51 | −$0.49 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.65at 0.030Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30?
- +$3.27at 0.270Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
- +$2.12at 0.055Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?
- +$0.89at 0.027Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
- +$0.00at 0.170Will Trump visit China by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-17 12:44 | US Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31? | BUY | 0.005999994 | $1.00 |
| 05-17 12:44 | Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? | BUY | 0.002970297 | $1.00 |
| 05-17 12:42 | Nick Fuentes federally charged? | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |
| 05-17 12:42 | Russia coup attempt in 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 05-17 12:42 | Nick Fuentes arrested by June 30? | BUY | 0.023999977 | $1.00 |
| 05-17 12:41 | Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.00 |
| 05-17 12:41 | Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 05-17 12:41 | US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? | BUY | 0.1799998704 | $1.00 |
| 05-15 10:40 | Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? | SELL | 0.0656369025 | $10.41 |
| 05-08 19:47 | US announces shutdown of Gaza military center by May 15? | BUY | 0.04 | $1.00 |
| 05-08 16:42 | Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? | BUY | 0.0140000003 | $1.00 |
| 05-08 16:42 | UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? | BUY | 0.048999954 | $1.00 |
| 05-08 16:41 | James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? | BUY | 0.069999964 | $1.77 |
| 05-08 16:41 | James Comey charges dropped by May 31? | BUY | 0.0169999831 | $1.00 |
| 05-08 16:41 | Will Comey smile in his mugshot? | BUY | 0.0421568228 | $1.00 |