0x42c761c00071a05f2b996ac11eb5689b3effc3de
0x42c761c00071a05f2b996ac11eb5689b3effc3de
- Realised P&L
- $-33.72
- Volume
- $3.7k
- Markets traded
- 42
- Open portfolio
- $7.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded42
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.024 | $1.50 | −$3.50 |
| US imports Russian diesel by October 31? · No | 0.800 | 0.895 | $1.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.360 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will no listed leader be out before 2027? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.455 | $0.88 | −$0.12 |
| Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.140 | $0.88 | −$0.13 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.045 | $0.64 | −$0.36 |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.044 | $0.40 | −$0.60 |
| UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.018 | $0.36 | −$0.64 |
| Russia coup attempt in 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.035 | $0.34 | −$0.66 |
| James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.011 | $0.29 | −$1.48 |
| Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.045 | $0.28 | −$0.72 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.92at 0.032Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30?
- +$3.27at 0.270Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.98at 0.055Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?
- +$0.89at 0.027Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
- +$-0.00at 0.170Will Trump visit China by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 19:29 | Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 19:27 | Will no listed leader be out before 2027? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 19:25 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | BUY | 0.0699999965 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 19:21 | US imports Russian diesel by October 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 19:19 | Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 19:18 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027? | BUY | 0.109999989 | $1.00 |
| 05-17 12:44 | US Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31? | BUY | 0.005999994 | $1.00 |
| 05-17 12:44 | Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? | BUY | 0.002970297 | $1.00 |
| 05-17 12:42 | Nick Fuentes federally charged? | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |
| 05-17 12:42 | Russia coup attempt in 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 05-17 12:42 | Nick Fuentes arrested by June 30? | BUY | 0.023999977 | $1.00 |
| 05-17 12:41 | Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.00 |
| 05-17 12:41 | Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 05-17 12:41 | US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? | BUY | 0.1799998704 | $1.00 |
| 05-15 10:40 | Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? | SELL | 0.0656369025 | $10.41 |