PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

hotx

0x423790f1d244d6645d4dd93327512790d3dc11d3

Realised P&L
$-475.40
Volume
$37.0k
Markets traded
715
Open portfolio
$11.53

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded715
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration14.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration44.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes0.3380.175$5.17−$4.83
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes0.0960.024$1.96−$6.04
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes0.1820.029$0.94−$5.06
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0330.015$0.88−$1.12
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? · Yes0.0900.030$0.68−$1.32
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes0.4000.105$0.53−$1.48
Iran Nuke before 2027? · Yes0.1300.033$0.51−$1.49
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes0.0820.021$0.50−$1.50
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December? · Yes0.0680.013$0.37−$1.63
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01? · Yes0.2600.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? · Yes0.1100.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes0.2370.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Canada vs. Morocco end in a draw? · Yes0.2900.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? · Yes0.5900.000$0.00−$2.00
Will Ghana win on 2026-07-03? · Yes0.1100.000$0.00−$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-12 23:58Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?BUY0.299999925$2.00
07-11 02:16Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?BUY0.2374999828$10.00
07-11 02:15Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?BUY0.162499868$1.00
07-11 02:15Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?BUY0.5799999861$10.00
07-09 02:36Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?BUY0.2474999652$5.00
07-09 02:35Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?BUY0.1699999759$5.00
07-07 23:22Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?BUY0.25$2.00
07-07 23:22Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?BUY0.15$3.00
07-07 20:08Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?BUY0.4$2.00
07-07 00:23Will United States win on 2026-07-06?BUY0.1699998861$1.00
07-06 03:13Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?BUY0.2699998542$1.00
07-06 03:13Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?BUY0.239999856$1.00
07-06 02:44Will Mexico vs. England end in a draw?SELL0.32$1.03
07-06 02:29Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?BUY0.0689999387$1.00
07-05 03:42Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?BUY0.3099999622$5.00