casandra13
0x41b0ee514df0c43652d28323292776bedff29801
- Realised P&L
- $-452.10
- Volume
- $59.9k
- Markets traded
- 44
- Open portfolio
- $6.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded44
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$135.42at 0.883Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$91.10at 0.956NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?
- +$61.29at 0.620Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$39.50at 0.974US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?
- +$34.57at 0.987US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 08:33 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8799999998 | $300.00 |
| 09-16 15:19 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.992 | $1.9k |
| 09-12 14:18 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.994 | $850.00 |
| 09-11 16:14 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.991 | $1.0k |
| 09-11 16:12 | Will Alexandre Pantoja be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $10.00 |
| 09-07 09:58 | Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.983 | $1.4k |
| 09-07 07:39 | Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.971 | $0.84 |
| 09-07 07:12 | Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8970220641 | $100.00 |
| 09-05 08:42 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.9692893521 | $1000.00 |
| 09-01 15:19 | Will Alexandre Pantoja be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5377414836 | $50.00 |
| 09-01 12:45 | Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.863095237 | $100.00 |
| 09-01 12:36 | Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9057569813 | $500.00 |
| 08-31 16:47 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $999.99 |
| 08-27 20:36 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $1000.00 |
| 08-27 20:24 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9687987223 | $500.00 |