PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

afdafdafdafdafd

0x410aa391edffa58af64517ec579af5def62b2643

Realised P&L
$-118.1k
Volume
$7.35M
Markets traded
355
Open portfolio
$592.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded355
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration16.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration19.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.8880.955$115.5k+$8.1k
Trump out as President before 2027? · No0.8640.966$65.7k+$6.9k
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No0.9630.983$57.1k+$1.1k
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No0.9540.972$46.2k+$812.70
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No0.9820.953$41.3k−$1.3k
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No0.9380.984$40.7k+$1.9k
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · No0.8660.974$40.4k+$4.4k
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No0.9670.981$36.3k+$512.06
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.9200.945$23.6k+$625.00
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.8650.971$18.8k+$2.0k
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yes0.9920.993$14.9k+$12.51
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes0.9060.925$11.8k+$236.62
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.7400.745$11.2k+$75.00
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.9440.959$9.9k+$151.17
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? · No0.8050.952$8.5k+$1.3k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 14:10Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?BUY0.973$468.99
11-01 14:09Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in November?BUY0.969$53.30
10-27 18:48Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October?BUY0.994$4.97
10-27 18:48Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?BUY0.973$476.77
10-27 18:48Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?BUY0.9719541284$1.1k
10-27 18:47Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?BUY0.97$48.50
10-27 18:47Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in October?BUY0.994$689.34
10-27 18:47Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?BUY0.981$210.91
10-27 18:47Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?BUY0.98$97.34
10-27 18:45Xi Jinping out before 2027?BUY0.9562656951$1.9k
10-24 15:52Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?BUY0.971$1.0k
10-24 15:50Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?BUY0.9840291734$1.2k
10-24 15:49Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in October?BUY0.975$4.88
10-24 13:36Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?BUY0.75$41.25
10-24 13:36Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?BUY0.91$1.8k