afdafdafdafdafd
0x410aa391edffa58af64517ec579af5def62b2643
- Realised P&L
- $-118.1k
- Volume
- $7.35M
- Markets traded
- 355
- Open portfolio
- $592.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded355
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.5kat 0.856Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$5.8kat 0.974Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?
- +$4.6kat 0.979Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?
- +$4.4kat 0.837US forces enter Iran by March 7?
- +$3.9kat 0.955US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 14:10 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.973 | $468.99 |
| 11-01 14:09 | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in November? | BUY | 0.969 | $53.30 |
| 10-27 18:48 | Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October? | BUY | 0.994 | $4.97 |
| 10-27 18:48 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October? | BUY | 0.973 | $476.77 |
| 10-27 18:48 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October? | BUY | 0.9719541284 | $1.1k |
| 10-27 18:47 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October? | BUY | 0.97 | $48.50 |
| 10-27 18:47 | Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in October? | BUY | 0.994 | $689.34 |
| 10-27 18:47 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October? | BUY | 0.981 | $210.91 |
| 10-27 18:47 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October? | BUY | 0.98 | $97.34 |
| 10-27 18:45 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.9562656951 | $1.9k |
| 10-24 15:52 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October? | BUY | 0.971 | $1.0k |
| 10-24 15:50 | Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October? | BUY | 0.9840291734 | $1.2k |
| 10-24 15:49 | Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in October? | BUY | 0.975 | $4.88 |
| 10-24 13:36 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October? | BUY | 0.75 | $41.25 |
| 10-24 13:36 | Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.8k |