0x40293babd99c9b47fe306f6bd1d820ed99917639
0x40293babd99c9b47fe306f6bd1d820ed99917639
- Realised P&L
- $11.51
- Volume
- $2.5k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $32.97
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? · No | 0.616 | 0.945 | $12.29 | +$4.28 |
| Will Together be in the next Israeli government? · No | 0.365 | 0.350 | $5.72 | −$0.25 |
| Greenland snap election called by December 31? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.056 | $3.99 | +$1.67 |
| Closer Senate Race: Alaska or Texas? · Alaska | 0.140 | 0.430 | $3.07 | +$2.07 |
| Will Alirio García Flamenco win the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election? · No | 0.990 | 0.971 | $1.97 | −$0.04 |
| Viktor Orbán arrested by...? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.127 | $1.95 | −$0.05 |
| Will the Liberals (L) be in the next Swedish government? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.155 | $1.08 | −$0.45 |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.950 | 0.985 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? · No | 0.995 | 0.992 | $1.00 | −$0.00 |
| Jumper listed on Coinbase within 30 days of TGE? · No | 0.660 | 0.575 | $0.87 | −$0.13 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$26.84at 0.026Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026?
- +$10.57at 0.228Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?
- +$5.05at 0.616US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?
- +$3.25at 0.782Will Trump meet with Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?
- +$2.21at 0.099Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $47.5B by September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 20:55 | Will Together be in the next Israeli government? | BUY | 0.3125238378 | $3.97 |
| 11-01 18:59 | Will Together be in the next Israeli government? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 18:59 | Will Together be in the next Israeli government? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 22:00 | Will the opposition bloc win the Israeli election by 3-4 seats? | BUY | 0.8299999133 | $1.34 |
| 10-27 21:20 | Will Dems win fewer than 8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? | SELL | 0.06 | $1.48 |
| 10-27 10:15 | Will Dems win fewer than 8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? | BUY | 0.13 | $2.21 |
| 10-27 09:54 | Will Dems win fewer than 8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? | BUY | 0.1299999948 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 03:31 | Will Vinícius Júnior attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? | BUY | 0.996 | $3.97 |
| 10-26 22:57 | Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.9899990298 | $1.00 |
| 10-26 15:34 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | SELL | 0.74 | $2.06 |
| 10-26 08:11 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6599999498 | $1.84 |
| 10-25 16:50 | Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%? | BUY | 0.003 | $1.58 |
| 10-25 15:56 | Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 30%? | BUY | 0.984 | $1.00 |
| 10-25 03:01 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $1.76 |
| 10-16 11:24 | Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.859999914 | $1.00 |