PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x3F6f986196EbebbB529cC18a331BF211c299e536-1774818119409

0x3f6f986196ebebbb529cc18a331bf211c299e536

Realised P&L
$-461.57
Volume
$19.3k
Markets traded
97
Open portfolio
$311.44

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded97
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration73.3% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample39 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)64.1%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration22.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? · No0.6300.725$69.05+$9.05
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1260.045$40.02$71.98
US strike on Cuba by December 31? · No0.5700.845$29.65+$9.65
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 · No0.1690.185$19.71+$1.71
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No0.5100.915$17.94+$7.94
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2000.029$14.75$85.25
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? · Yes0.3600.515$14.31+$4.31
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? · Yes0.1400.080$11.33$8.67
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? · No0.8800.930$10.57+$0.57
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No0.9610.903$9.40$0.60
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.2500.055$8.80$31.20
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.3900.305$7.82$2.18
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? · Yes0.4150.320$7.70$2.30
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? · No0.6400.930$7.27+$2.27
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? · No0.5080.145$7.14$17.86

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-04 16:03Nothing Ever Happens: 2026BUY0.1699998861$1.00
07-04 16:02Nothing Ever Happens: 2026BUY0.1699999871$10.00
07-04 16:02US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?SELL0.89$10.97
07-04 15:57Nothing Ever Happens: 2026BUY0.1673698833$7.00
07-04 15:52Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?BUY0.6299999977$60.00
07-04 15:46Trump out as President before 2027?BUY0.0899999919$10.00
07-04 15:45Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.389999986$10.00
05-31 12:20Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1$12.00
05-22 08:10Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?BUY0.25$40.00
05-22 08:09Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?BUY0.0599999972$20.00
05-22 08:09Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?BUY0.2899999956$30.00
05-22 08:07Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?BUY0.0170000004$1.00
05-22 08:07Russia coup attempt in 2026?BUY0.0699999874$5.00
05-22 08:07Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?BUY0.014$5.00
05-22 08:06Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?BUY0.0148809524$5.00